EOD Blog April 30, 2025

^Above is the ES 500 tick. The initial uptrend from the OV session got a large break. The first major leg down finished soon after the market open, where it shot up with 2 clear legs higher. (Marked 2 attempts at new high) That is not a good MM to short directly on as there is more reason to think bullish at that point htan bearish as the uptrend still has yet to play out, and price was unable to reach the OVL after forming the OVH.

Hi everyone I hope you've had a great trading day. Today all my focus was on the NQ 250 tick.

You can see the larger price action levels forming. Notice at the beginning with the downtrend. We got a very small 2 legged break, smaller than the one marked. We got a perfect MM reaction/reversal, but price was only forming a larger break between the bigger pic legs that were pushing up. That took us to the marked "2 legged break" on the chart. After a couple attempts down, price reversed, and ultimately made an even larger 2 legged break from the original downtrend. We can see that with the red arrows.

Price was in a clear downtrend in the previous day. In the overnight session price broke the downtrend, made a couple attempts at a new low, which failed making a much larger 2 legged break. Price made a few more new low attempts but ended up breaking the OVH and taking off.

Above is the NQ 250 tick, price broke the range from last Thursday, retested it and continued lower in the overnight session. Price formed a downtrend, which then broke and made 2 attempts at a new low, which led to a reversal/fade attempt, which had a strong failure, leading to a full on downtrend day. When price broke the OVL, (after the initial 2 breaks) and really took off lower, this would be a good spot for a F2EL for a short entry. Price was extremely bearish at this point, but it was so bearish it couldn't offer us a couple legs back to get in on the move.

Here is the ES on the 500 tick. I got started trading a bit late today, started at the red circle. Price started off with 2 major legs up, nearly reaching the large upMM. Price started reversing lower after making the new high. Started off with 2 legs down, then a reversal back above the EMA. Price held on that green trendline, then pushed into a F2EL on the way down. It looks good to try to get short there, so long as you have room to the green trendline. It looks like it took off fast though, and given the 2 legs down and reversal, I'd want to see a hold below before shorting there.